Afghanistan: Obama’s Achilles Heel

President Bush and eight years of Republican rule left a huge list of problems for the nation to solve. Cleaning up the mess is a huge job considering that in addition to the mess of the economy, the mess in Iraq and the mess in Afghanistan there is also a long list of unresolved national questions and other foreign policy issues that have been badly managed and need a new start. So, how is President Obama doing on cleaning up the mess, addressing the unresolved issues and starting over on a host of foreign policy questions?
I think he is doing very well. The economy is starting to and will come around, the question is how long it will take, but I predict the Dow Jones will end the year over 9000 and, actually be closer to 9500. Iraq is going as well as could be expected although no one should hope that the pull out of troops will be without problems. The primary political challenges of putting together a nation still remain to be settled in Iraq and there could be a very big increase in national violence and, eventually something like a civil war, especially considering that the Kurdish question has not even been touched.
The starting over on foreign policy in the Middle East, China, North Korea, Russia, Iran and even Europre is also in pretty good shape. Although major question remain unresolved, the Obama/Clinton approach to developing a foreign policy and international relations has put the United States in good position to play a positive role in resolving these questions short of starting another inadvisable military action.
And, on the domestic issues it looks like both health care and immigration policy have a chance at renewal or repair within the next year if the Democrats can keep their house together for the fight against the special interests and the Republicans.
The Achilles heal of the Obama efforts to clean up, address unresolved national questions and start over is Afghanistan. Somebody should spend a good deal of time letting this administration know three things: Afghanistan is not our country, Afghanistan is not really a country, and Afghanistan has a 1600 mile border with Pakistan.
Let me repear what I have stated from the beginning and several times in this blog: The war in Afghanist was a mistake. It was a mistake because war was the wrong response to 9/11. Limited military and police action along with increase effectiveness in intelligence was the correct response. There is some hope that the Obama administration does really understand that we cannot win the war in Afghanistan. The question is whether the American people expect to win and if so, what they think winning means. For the moment we can achieve a limited victory in Helmand province to the west of Kahndahar where we have our tradtion stronghold in the south, but we cannot hold Helmand province for long, or inflict a major defeat on the Taliban. To think that Pakistan will do anything more than provide occassional efforts that look like they are making headway against Taliban and Al Quaeda strongholds in the border region is unrealistic. Pakistan will do well to achieve that the Taliban and Al Quaeda do not make military and political gains within their own country. Just remember that Paklistan has no interest in a stong and united Afghanistan. They already have a strong enemy to the east and do not want anything more than a buffer zone with Iran on the West. Then there is the 1600 mile border, most of which is sparsely populated mountain regions that provide no possibiliti4es for constant monitoring by Pakistan troops and, thus, provide ample opportunities for the rear guards of both the Taliban and Al Quaeda to rest, recuperate, train and replenish their numbers and their power.
In other words, we will be in Afghanistan for decades if the idea is to build an Afghanistan able to resist the efforts of the Taliban to destabalize the central government and to control key areas outside of Kabul. We need allies which is the reason that the Russian agreement to allow us to use their air space was a very important gain for the Obama adminsitration. The Russians, if they so desired, could dreate havoc in Afghanistan and Pakistan if they cose to, by just refusing to do certain things and provide clandestine aid to the Taliban and Al Quaeda as we did to the same folks when the Russians were occupying Afghanistan.
Nevertheless, even having allies will not win the day for us, as none of these alies will agree to send more troops since they all believe they should not have to pay dearly for our mistakes.
The Taliban are not our enemy nor should they be our target of operations in Afghanistan. This is why the operation in Helmand province is ill advised and has no possibility for long term gain. Our enemy is Al Quaeda as long as they remian a radical, fundamental group with the goal of destroying our society. Our goal is, therefore, to defuse this threat to our security or at leats to so interupt their normal operations that they remain a limited and controlled factor in the workd of terrorists.
The military/police/intelligence strategy that we need to initiate would not include sending our troops out to take large tracts of land and destroy poppy fields. The end result of this strategy is to increase our military vulnerability and raise the price of heroin without affecting the income provided to our enemies by these crops or inflicting significant damage on their military capability.
Therefore, talking with the Taliban and Al Quaeda is a good strategy, although making a deal with one, the other or both is a dangerious proposition. Neverheless, if there can be an accomosation which serves to stabilize the region and increase our national security concern related to terrorism directed at us, then it will pay good dividends. The degree to which we can assist Afghanistan gain a more effective central governent either by military action or foreign aid should be determined solely on the basis fo what serves the strategy to contrain Al Quaeda. Sorry about that, Afghanistan. I can only say that when you made the deal with Bush to help you overthrow the Taliban, you made a bad deal with a bad dealer. In fact the US never had the ability or the commitment to follow through on its promises. It is a mess, but a mess that needs to be cleaned up not by following through on misguided policies and promises, but on rewriting the policy and limiting the promises to what we actually are capable of doing and limiting the promises to those areas where fulfilling the promise also advances our primary goal of restricting the ability of Al Quaeda to traing and implement terrorism in that region and around the world.
Achilles heel injuries can take an otherwise healthy athlete out for a season even thoug h the rest of the body is fully capable of functioning at a high level. Afghanistan could be just this Achilles heel for the Obama administration. Special attention should be paid to making sure we do not suffer this injury.