Tuesday, January 20, 2009

No Real Cease, No Real Peace

It should not be surprise that the invasion of Gaza ended as it did with Israel deciding to leave the Gaza just as quickly and aribitrarily as it decided to invade and send troops into the Gaza. Both sides declared a unilateral cease fire and both claimed victory. Nothing changed, except, as Israel claims: damage was done to Hamas. Actually the damage was about 17% of the building destroyed at a loss of something like $2 billion, over a 1000 Palestinians killed, more that half of them women and children. The reasons for Israel's withdrawal were about as clear as their reasons for invading. There are no guarantees by Hamas that they do not continue with the rockets into Israel, no guarantees by Israel that they would not reverse the withdrawal and re-invade.

No real cease fire, no real chance to turn the invasion into peace. That probably is the reason that there were unilateral actions leading to temporary resolution of the crisis without any promises or agreed upon framework for going forward. The idea of the cease fire was to agree to conditions for maintainintg the cease fire, conditions that might have the chance of establishing some foundation for going forward with negotiations for somekind of process that would lead to peace.

Neither Hamas nor Israel wanted such formalities, certainly not any commitments for fair and humane treatment of one another, nor to abide by international human right laws. Hamas was not removed from power, their ability to launch rockets only minimally reduced and the clandestine supply routes from Egypt still functioning.

It would take a reliable source within the Israeli's ruling party's government to reveal to us the real purposes of the invasion\ and, therefore, whether, in fact, that purpose was accomplished. "Damages were done" doesn't seen to be sufficient. What is clear from the way that the invasion ended is that neither side want's peace or any kind of agreement that might lead that way. For both, it was a victory that neither acquired any further commitments that woud limit its options for use of violence in the future.

it is speculated that the new Obama administration will soon, very soon, send a special envoy to the Middle East. The first order of business could well be to find some legitimate authority there who actually desires peace.

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